ANALYSIS: How this year’s Immigration Levels Plan affects the chances of success for Express Entry candidates

Canada’s latest Immigration Levels Plan has significant implications for foreign nationals seeking permanent residence through the Express Entry system.

According the Plan, more permanent residency spots have been allocated for Express Entry candidates in 2025.

Two types of candidates can expect to benefit from these changes:

Candidates in Canada; and
Candidates who qualify for category-based draws.

Candidates who do not fall into the above focus categories can expect it to be more challenging for them to obtain an invitation to apply (ITA) through Express Entry in 2025.

Get a Free Express Entry Assessment

Increase in Express Entry allocation

Although the federal government cut targets for permanent resident admissions by about 20% for 2025, it actually increased the allocation toward Express Entry:

2025 target - current Plan	2025 target - last year’s Plan	2024 target - last year's Plan
124,680	117,500	110,770

The 2025 target of 124,680, for the combined categories of “In-Canada Focus” and “Economic Priorities,” represents an increase both from the 2024 target, and from the 2025 target of last year’s Immigration Levels Plan.

For 2024, IRCC targeted 110,770 for the “federal high skilled” (FHS) category, which is a grouping of the three Express Entry managed federal immigration programs: the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP), and the Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP).

In last year’s Immigration Levels Plan, IRCC targeted 117,500 for FHS in 2025.

Candidates seeking to immigrate through Express Entry-managed programs can expect that 2025 will see a greater number of invitations issued than in 2024.

Prioritization of candidates in Canada

For this year’s Plan, IRCC introduced an “In-Canada Focus” category as part of the allocation toward economic immigration for Express Entry-managed programs.

Candidates who are currently living in Canada can expect that their chances of receiving an invitation to apply (ITA) will increase in 2025 due to the introduction of this category.

For 2025, IRCC set a target of 82,980 for this category—about 42% of the federal economic immigration target of 197,650.*

Overseas candidates for the FSWP or FSTP can expect reduced chances of receiving ITAs.

*We’ve taken the total economic immigration target of 232,150 and subtracted the 34,500 for Quebec Skilled Workers and Business. Quebec controls its own immigration targets and admissions.

Get a Free Express Entry Assessment

Prioritization of category-based draws

In this year’s Plan IRCC also set a target of 41,700 permanent residence admissions for a category called “Federal Economic Priorities,” which makes up part of the Express Entry managed programs.

CIC News expects that IRCC will implement “Economic Priorities” using the existing system of category-based draws, first announced in May of 2023.

Category-based draws allow IRCC to issue invitations to apply (ITAs) to Express Entry candidates who have occupations that satisfy needs in Canada’s labour market.

The current categories are

French-language proficiency;
Healthcare occupations;
Science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) occupations;
Trade occupations;
Transport occupations; and
Agriculture and agri-food occupations.

The federal government specifically called out the following categories as priorities for 2025 within the Levels Plan:

Healthcare occupations;
Trade occupations; and
French-language proficiency.

Express Entry candidates who are eligible for these category-based draws may be more likely to receive an ITA in 2025.

To be eligible for a category-based draw for an in-demand occupation, a candidate typically requires six months of work experience (or an equivalent amount of part time) over the past three years in an eligible occupation.

History of In-Canada Focus

On March 21 2024, Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced IRCC’s intention to prioritize “domestic draws” to enable temporary residents within Canada to transition to permanent residence.

From May to October of 2024, IRCC issued 25,700 ITAs over eight CEC draws.

IRCC has not held a general draw since 23 April 2024.

IRCC also announced that it aims to reduce the number of temporary residents as a percentage of the population from current levels of about 7%, to 5% by 2026.

History of category-based draws

In 2024, we saw many category-based draws:

Category	Number of draws	Number of ITAs
Agriculture and agri-food	1	150
French language proficiency	9	21,400
Healthcare	2	7,250
STEM	1	4,500
Trade	2	3,600
Transport	1	975

This year’s Plan affirms IRCC’s commitment to category-based draws for 2025, and suggests that healthcare, trade occupations, and French-language proficiency may see an even greater number of draws and ITAs in 2025.

Get a Free Express Entry Assessment