Election Polls 2021: Liberals and Conservatives are effectively tied

Shelby Thevenot
Updated: Aug, 21, 2023
  • Published: September 17, 2021

Ahead of the last weekend before election day, support for both Liberals and Conservatives is so strong there is no clear front runner.

All voter polls in Canada suggest the race is tight. On CBC's Poll Tracker, Liberals appear to be just ahead at 31.7 per cent compared to 31.2 per cent for the Conservatives. Nanos suggests support for the Liberals is at 31.9 per cent while the Conservatives are at 30.3 per cent, which is effectively a tie when factoring in the survey's margin of error. Angus Reid's September 14 poll says Conservatives are ahead at 32 per cent compared to 30 per cent support for the Liberals, also a statistical tie. Ekos Politics has the two parties tied at 31.8 per cent.

At the start of the week, voters were leaning slightly more Liberal. However, the week before Conservatives were leading the pack.

Discover if You’re Eligible for Canadian Immigration

Support for the Conservatives is strongest in the Prairie Provinces: Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. B.C. is favouring the New Democratic Party (NDP). Support for the Liberals is strongest in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and Ontario, according to Angus Reid. Abascus Data agrees the Liberal's lead is thanks to support from Canada's two largest provinces.

The Conservatives and the Liberals have been the only two parties to ever hold office at the federal level, and it does not look like that will change in this election.

The iPolitics Elections Barometer, as well as the CBC Poll Tracker both suggest a Liberal minority is the most likely outcome — which is exactly what it was before the election campaign started. A minority government is when the leading party holds less than 50 per cent of the seats in the House of Commons. Its opposite is a majority government, where the winning party also has the most seats in the House.

Both parties are in favour of raising immigration levels, addressing backlogs, and improving credential recognition. The Liberals are once again promising to end citizenship fees, and to address systemic racism through a number of avenues, such as increasing funding to multicultural community programs. Conservatives say they will reform the Parents and Grandparents Program (PGP) to a first-come-first served intake process, instead of a lottery. They also want to replace the Government-Assisted Refugee Program with more public-private sponsorship.

Canadians will vote on Monday, September 20. Advance voting has already started. More than 5.7 million Canadians have already voted at the advance polling stations, an 18 per cent increase over the 2019 election, according to Elections Canada.

Discover if You’re Eligible for Canadian Immigration

© CIC News All Rights Reserved. Visit CanadaVisa.com to discover your Canadian immigration options.

Share this article
Share your voice
Did you find this article helpful?
Thank you for your feedback.
Subscribe to our newsletter
Did you find this article helpful?
Please provide a response
Thank you for your helpful feedback
Please contact us if you would like to share additional feedback, have a question, or would like Canadian immigration assistance.
  • Do you need Canadian immigration assistance? Contact the Contact Cohen Immigration Law firm by completing our form
  • Send us your feedback or your non-legal assistance questions by emailing us at media@canadavisa.com
Related articles
Canada releases 2022 Annual Report on Express Entry
Children playing together in colourful natural park on autumn day
Canada to extend Canada-Ukraine Authorization for Emergency Travel
Canada is announcing updates to its Ukraine immigration measures.
IRCC and Canada’s provinces continue working together to welcome Ukrainians
Canada is continuing its work to welcome Ukrainian newcomers.
Canada releases Annual Report on Express Entry for 2021
Family walking up snowy hill pulling toboggan
Top Stories
Canada invites 3,000 candidates in latest Express Entry draw
Canada releases 2022 Annual Report on Express Entry
Most popular options to come to Canada from the United Arab Emirates
Join our free newsletter. Get Canada's top immigration stories delivered to your inbox.
Subscribe
More in Canada
Most popular options to come to Canada from the United Arab Emirates
Multicultural business team putting their hands together in the middle of a circle while standing and smiling
Canada is still processing visas for Indian nationals
Parliament buildings in Ottawa
I’m coming to Canada on a TRV. Can I bring my family with me?
A happy family of three relaxing in the lounge and being playful together
IRCC application backlog slowly shrinking despite higher number of applications
Colourful autumn leaves on a country road.
Link copied to clipboard