Are new Canadians leaving Canada for greener pastures? Study says no

A new study by Statistics Canada has dispelled the myth that immigrants who acquire Canadian citizenship are leaving in droves.

According to a study published this month by Statistics Canada, of the immigrants admitted between 2008 and 2012 who became Canadian citizens, 93% had an active presence in Canada 10 years after admission.

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This finding was specifically for immigrants aged 25 to 54 at admission. Active presence in this case was measured by income tax filing in a calendar year.

The study found that this percentage was significantly higher when compared to immigrants of the same age bracket admitted in the same period who did not go on to become Canadian citizens. Of these, only 67% had an active presence 10 years later.

Retention is higher among more recent immigrants

The study also measured how the 2008-2009 cohort compared to immigrants admitted between 2003 and 2007.

For immigrants admitted over 2003-2007, 91% of immigrants who became citizens had an active presence ten years later.

Meanwhile, of those who immigrated between 2003 and 2007 but chose not to become Canadian citizens, 58% had an active presence long-term.

This suggests that Canada’s immigrant retention has been improving.

How do human capital factors affect immigrant decisions?

According to the study, human capital factors such as education and language proficiency impacted citizenship rates and active presence.

Here are some findings:

Higher education linked to higher citizenship rates:
Immigrants with a bachelor’s or graduate degree were more likely to become Canadian citizens than those with lower levels of education.

Official language skills matter:
Those who spoke English or French at the time of immigration had significantly higher citizenship rates compared to those who spoke neither language.

Younger immigrants more likely to naturalize:
Individuals who arrived in Canada between the ages of 20 and 34 were more likely to get Canadian citizenship than older immigrants.

Refugees more likely to naturalize:
Among immigration categories, refugees were the most likely to become citizens, followed by those admitted under the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) and the Quebec selection program.

Country of origin influences naturalization decisions:
Immigrants from developing countries had higher citizenship rates when compared to those from developed countries.

For example, the citizenship rate among immigrants from the US, France, the UK and South Korea ranged from 35% to 54% 10 years after admission.

In contrast, the citizenship rate for immigrants from Colombia, the Philippines, Pakistan, and Iran ranged from 74% to 82%.

Does becoming a Canadian citizen make immigrants less likely to stay in Canada?

One of the questions the study aimed to answer was whether acquiring Canadian citizenship affects an immigrant’s long-term stay in the country. In other words, whether some immigrants leave Canada after becoming citizens.

The findings suggest that while some immigrants do choose to leave after acquiring citizenship, the percentage is relatively small and lower than many might expect.

According to the report, the active presence rate fell from 97% one year before acquiring citizenship to 95% one year after, representing a modest 2% decline.

This drop became slightly more pronounced over time. Three years after becoming Canadian citizens, the active presence rate fell to 92%, marking a 5 percentage point decline compared to the year before citizenship. This suggests that around 5% of naturalized immigrants either left Canada or became inactive in the tax system within three years of becoming citizens.

However, the study does note that compared to immigrants who did not acquire Canadian citizenship, the decline in active presence is less steep. Non-citizens saw a more consistent annual decline of about 3 percentage points, proving that Canadian citizenship is still linked to higher retention rates.

Note: It's worth noting that income tax filing in itself does not always equate to active presence. This report states that "among immigrants admitted in 2020, 90% filed a tax return in their first full year following admission."

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