Canada’s policy changes offer boon to incoming study-to-immigrate cohort

The incoming cohort of international students can expect to benefit from recent cuts to the international student program, if they hope to settle in Canada as permanent residents (PRs) after their studies.

The idea that cuts to the student program will benefit incoming students may seem surprising.

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After all, in 2025 we have seen lowered permanent residence admissions targets (relative to 2024) and increased competition for fewer spots through Express Entry, Canada’s flagship system for selecting skilled workers for permanent residence.

All things being equal, the following factors provide significant advantages to incoming international students who hope to immigrate to Canada:

• Lower international student admissions means less competition.
• The focus on Canadian Experience Class (CEC) candidates advantages graduates with post-graduation work permits (PGWPs).
• The removal of bonus points for arranged employment favours open work permit holders.
• Cuts to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) reduce competition.

Lower targets for international student admissions mean less competition

Incoming international students can expect less competition for obtaining permanent residence down the line, because reduced targets for international student admissions mean that in future years fewer graduates will be competing for the same number of permanent resident spots.

The admissions target for international students has dropped 49% (from 305,900 in 2025 to 155,000 in 2026), while the admissions targets for economic permanent residents has seen a modest increase of 3% (from 232,150 for 2025, to 239,800 in 2026), in the federal government's Immigration Levels Plan.

How can incoming students expect to be advantaged, one might ask, when the federal government's selection scores for permanent residents have hovered around an all-time high in recent years, and Canada harbours a glut of post-graduation work permit holders from the huge international student cohorts of 2022–2023?

In considering the PR prospects for many of these incoming international students, we need to think six or seven years down the line.

A Canadian bachelor’s degree provides the greatest advantage in pursuing PR for many international students.

A bachelor’s degree is exempt from post-graduation work permit (PGWP) field of study requirements, can lead to a PGWP valid for three years, and provides an additional 30 bonus points under Canada’s Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS), increasing the chances of being selected for PR through Express Entry.

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A typical Canadian bachelor’s program is four years long, so a lot of the incoming international students who enrol in bachelor’s programs will be studying for four years, then obtaining a three-year PGWP.

If they don’t have any prior Canadian work experience, such bachelor’s degree international student graduates will first become eligible for the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) five years down the line.

Many students of the 2026 cohort will be seeking permanent residence while working in Canada on PGWPs five or six years down the line, in the years 2032–2033.

By that time, the vast majority of graduates from the huge international student cohorts of 2022–2023 will have seen their PGWPs expire; most will either already have applied for PR, or will have left Canada and have lost their eligibility for the Canadian Experience Class (as the CEC requires a year of Canadian work experience within the past three years, a foreign national will lose eligibility two years and one day after leaving Canada).

All other things being equal, a smaller intake for the international student program will spell less competition for the limited number of permanent resident spots, meaning that these smaller incoming cohorts of international students can expect it to be easier to obtain PR in the years after graduation.

The focus on Canadian Experience Class (CEC) candidates advantages graduates with PGWPs

Those who are able to obtain PGWPs can expect to hold an advantage in seeking Canadian PR, should existing PR selection policies continue into the future.

Since April 23, 2024, the government has held no general draws through Express Entry: all invitations to apply for permanent residence have been issues through draws for provincial nominees, category-based selection eligible candidates, and Canadian Experience Class (CEC) candidates.

Since the CEC requires a year of skilled Canadian work experience (which cannot have been gained as a full-time student), obtaining an initial work permit is a key step in becoming eligible for the CEC .

For many foreign nationals, obtaining a PGWP is one of the most sure-fire and straightforward ways to gain the necessary Canadian work experience.

Provided an international student graduate is admissible to Canada, and meets all PGWP requirements, they can expect to be issued an open work permit for the maximum duration for which they qualify, up to three years.

With an open work permit in hand, experience living in Canada and with Canadian culture, and connections through their local community and their alma mater, international student graduates have significant advantages in breaking into the Canadian labour market to gain the skilled work experience they need to qualify for CEC and to increase their CRS score.

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Removal of bonus points for arranged employment favours open work permit holders

Canada’s Express Entry system used to award extra “additional points” under the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) for candidates with qualifying arranged employment: either 50 bonus points (for most candidates) or 200 (for certain executives).

The main way to qualify for these bonus points was by having an employer-specific job offer—meaning that PGWP holders, who have open work permits, would not qualify for these bonus points, putting them at a disadvantage in competing against other foreign nationals in Canada with employer-specific work permits, such as those working under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program.

With the removal of bonus points for arranged employment, closed work permit holders now no longer have any advantage over international student graduates working on PGWPs.

Cuts to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program reduce competition

The recent cuts to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) provide another tailwind for the incoming cohort of study-to-immigrate hopefuls.

Fewer incoming TFWP work permit holders means fewer foreign nationals gaining the work experience needed to qualify for the CEC and to score points for Canadian work experience under the CRS.

Furthermore, decreases to the TFWP may favour international student graduates even more than corresponding decreases to the international student program.

While TFWP-holders no longer receive bonus points for arranged employment, they are more likely than international student graduates to be able to maximize their CRS points under skill transferability factors, because they are more likely to have skilled foreign work experience in addition to their Canadian work experience.

Many international students pursuing the study-to-immigrate pathway enter directly into post-secondary education in Canada from either secondary school, or post-secondary in their country of origin.

When these international student graduates begin working in Canada on PGWPs, many are newly minted post-secondary graduates making their first entry into the educated workforce.

Even if they have prior work experience from their country of origin before having moved to Canada, often that work experience will be limited to low-skilled jobs (TEER 4 or 5 occupations under Canada's National Occupation Classification), meaning that it will not count as the skilled work experience necessary to obtain bonus points through skill transferability.

In contrast, a higher proportion of incoming permit-holders under the TFWP are entering the Canadian workforce with several years of skilled work experience from abroad.

When such TFWP holders qualify for the CEC, many will often already have two or three years of skilled foreign work experience, netting them an additional 50 CRS points through skill transferability—points which are unavailable to candidates lacking foreign work experience.*

Fewer incoming workers under the TFWP is therefore likely to result in fewer in-Canada CEC candidates eligible for the maximum points under skill transferability, resulting in not only less competition, but also less stiff competition, for PGWP holders seeking PR spots.

*There is one exception: skilled tradespeople with certificates of qualification in their skilled trade can score the additional 50 points under skill transferability, even if they have no foreign work experience.

What’s to come

Of course, nothing is guaranteed, and it is impossible to know what policy changes may take place between now and the year 2033, the time during which students of the incoming cohort can expect to be in Canada on year two of their PGWPs.

That said, the inherent uncertainty of the shifting winds of immigration policy does not make the recent changes any less of a net positive for the incoming international student cohort.

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