Canada’s temporary resident population contracts as overall population growth slows

Expiring work and study permits have contributed to a significant slowing of Canada’s population growth.

The country’s total population now stands at 41.5 million people.

Though Canada saw rapid increases in its population via increased temporary resident (work and study permit holders) inflows in the first two quarters of 2024, this change was offset by much slower increases in the remainder of the year.

The rate of population increase in Canada has trended downward for the last two quarters and is expected to continue to do so, as the country’s immigration department seeks a decrease in Canada’s overall population via the reduction in levels of temporary residents (TRs).

Beginning in December of 2023, Immigration Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) instituted a number of policies to lower the issuance of net new study permits and work permits, as well as to transition existing temporary residents to permanent residency.

Recent data from Statistics Canada suggests that these policies are having their desired effect.

Broad changes in Canada’s temporary resident population

Canada’s overall temporary resident population rose from 2.7 million people at the start of 2024, to 3.02 million by January 1, 2025. This 291,165 increase in temporary residents is almost three times smaller than the increase seen over the course of 2023.

The last quarter of 2024 saw the departure of 28,341 temporary residents from Canada between the period from October 1, 2024, to January 1, 2025.

The number of temporary residents admitted to Canada in 2024 has had a measurable impact on Canada’s overall population, which increased by 744,324 people over 2024—a lower population gain than was seen in 2022 and 2023, but still higher than seen in any year prior to those (from 1972 onwards).

Outflows of workers, students, increase in asylum claimants

The number of study permit holders over this same period decreased by 32,643, while work permit holders decreased by 18,435 foreign nationals.

On the other hand, this decrease was offset by the number of asylum claimants, protected persons, and related groups in Canada, which increased by 25,774. In 2024 this population reached an all-time high of 457,285 people.

Population changes among Canada’s provinces

On a provincial level, three of Canada’s Atlantic provinces experienced a slight decrease in population in the last quarter of 2024—Newfoundland and Labrador (loss of 301 TRs), Prince Edward Island (loss of 21 TRs), and Nova Scotia (loss of 50 TRs).

Canada’s remaining Atlantic province, New Brunswick, has not reported any loss in population over this same period.

Meanwhile, population increases were observed across the country's prairie provinces of Alberta (0.6% increase), Saskatchewan (0.3% increase), and Manitoba (0.3% increase). The Yukon and Nunavut both reported population growth of 0.4%, while the Northwest Territories saw a 0.3% increase over the same period.

While Canada’s growth rate has slowed, the population has continued to rise, which is largely attributable to the influx of newcomers in the first (increase of 154,483) and second quarter (increase of 117,834) of the year.

Why is growth in Canada’s temporary resident population slowing?

Starting in December of 2023 IRCC, Canada’s immigration department, began instituting policies to reduce the country’s population of temporary residents (also called Non-Permanent Residents (NPRs) by Statistics Canada) in the country.

These measures aimed to address domestic housing and associated affordability issues, by reducing Canada’s population to better align with available housing stock. At the announcement of the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan, IRCC claimed that 98% of population growth in Canada was due to immigration, of which 60% was attributed to increases in NPRs.

Formal measures enacted by the immigration department primarily took aim at Canada’s international student and foreign worker population and included

• Setting temporary resident levels for the first time ever through the Immigration Levels Plan;
• Changes to Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) eligibility, adding field of study and language requirements for new graduates;
• Increasing financial support requirements for study permits;
• Instituting a cap on study permit applications;
• Tightening eligibility criteria for Spousal Open Work Permits (SOWPs) and family Open Work Permits (OWPs);
• Instituting a freeze on Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) processing for the low-wage stream of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program in metropolitan areas that have an unemployment rate of 6% or higher;
• Raising wage requirements for the high-wage stream of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP);
• Enforcing stricter requirements for Intra-Company Transfers; and
• Increasing entry requirements for Mexican nationals.

The importance of immigration in Canadian society

Immigration is one of the most important functions that the Canadian government performs for the country’s demography and economy.

This is due to the fact that the Canadian population (like many other populations throughout North America and Europe) is caught between two pressing issues: a large aging population, and a low birth rate rate.

Due to the low birth rate of the domestic Canadian population, the country does not have enough people to replenish its population naturally. Simultaneously, Canada’s aging population means that thousands of retiring Canadian workers exit the labour market every year and begin to collect a pension—at once reducing taxable income in the country, while adding to national pension and healthcare costs.

In this context, the necessity of immigration to Canada is further underscored by the fact that:

• Key sectors of Canadian society are funded by public taxable income; and
• Immigration accounts for close to 100% of labour market growth, particularly in industries and sectors with persistent labour market shortages like healthcare and construction.

The contributions of newcomers in this regard are well recognized by Canada’s government. At the announcement of the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan, former Immigration Minister Marc Miller emphasized the importance of immigration in preventing a recession in Canada following the COVID-19 pandemic.

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