We asked AI to predict Canadian immigration in 2026. Here’s what it said
In 2026, the Canadian government is expected to make numerous announcements regarding its immigration system.
From the launch of new pathways to permanent residence (PR) to tightening eligibility for work permits, these changes are expected over the course of the year.
To consider the largest number of data points simultaneously, we decided to ask AI about its predictions for Canadian immigration in 2026.
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Methodology
For the purpose of this article, we used ChatGPT 5.2, set in Thinking Mode.
We asked the AI 14 questions across a range of immigration topics, and instructed it to make its answers as specific as possible, including sharing numbers or mentioning specific months when it thought changes would come into effect.
It is worth keeping in mind that chatbots often provide information that is inconsistent or misleading. Users asking the bot the same questions, may receive very different answers. Prior to making any complex immigration decisions, it is always best to check with an official government source, or reputable immigration representative or lawyer.
AI Claim: Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) cut-off scores for Canadian Experience Class draws will fall in 2026
According to the bot, CRS cut-off scores will be lower than in 2025, especially for Canadian Experience Class, “because (1) job-offer points are gone and (2) IRCC keeps prioritizing in-Canada selection.”
The bot predicted that the highest CRS cut-off score for a CEC draw in 2026 would be 535 “most likely around February to April when draw sizes are conservative” and the lowest would be 495 “if IRCC does one or two inventory-clearing large CEC rounds.”
CIC News Note: While it is true that points for arranged employment have been removed, and that Canada is prioritizing in-Canada applicants, these numbers are speculative. There are numerous other factors that can influence CRS cut-off scores including large influxes of people into the Express Entry pool, and existing candidates leaving the country and boosting their scores by gaining foreign work experience.
AI Claim: In-Canada applicants get greater preference through more “in-Canada” categories
The bot predicted no broad temporary to permanent residence pathway but a “de facto TR-to-PR system” through
- Heavier CEC draws; and
- New in-Canada categories (similar to the Physicians category that was introduced at the end of 2025).
The reasoning the bot gave was that IRCC had already signalled a 2025-2026 strategy towards inviting candidates with Canadian work experience and transitioning those already in the country.
CIC News Note: The most recent Immigration Levels Plan announced plans to accelerate the transition of up to 33,000 temporary residents to permanent status, something the bot failed to mention.
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AI Claim: Provincial immigration becomes more targeted
AI pointed out that the recent Levels Plan increased the number of admissions through PNPs while also adding 5,000 extra doctor nomination spaces for provinces and territories (towards the end of the year).
The bot predicts province-led occupation targeting (health, construction, early childhood education), and more “in-province experience” filters.
CIC News Note: In 2025, many provinces chose to prioritize candidates from specific in-demand occupations in light of a slashed nomination allocation. In 2026, the allocation that provinces receive may be increased, given the increased admissions in the Levels Plan. Therefore, provinces may not have to target specific occupations or candidates as they did last year.
Most provinces require applicants to demonstrate an intent to reside in the province. However, “in-province experience” is generally not required—whereas a valid job offer from an eligible employer in the province can actually be a requirement.
AI Claim: Express Entry categories to be paused, new categories to launch in 2026
When it comes to Category Based Selection, AI believes that STEM is likely to be paused (not deleted forever). The bot’s reasoning? STEM “often overlaps with high-scoring candidates already coming through Canadian Experience Class/Provincial Nominee Program.” In other words, many candidates already acquiring PR through existing pathways work in STEM fields, therefore filling gaps in the labour market.
The bot also stated Agriculture and agri-food category would be removed, and shifted as “agri tends to be better served via employer-tied work permits and other sector pathways."
Interestingly, the bot also predicted two new categories for 2026:
Construction / housing delivery: Due to housing supply pressure and because trade as a category is too broad; a construction-specific category lets IRCC more directly target occupations closely related to raising housing supply and construction efforts (site supervisors, certain civil trades, building envelope).
Critical infrastructure & energy transition: Canada keeps signaling nation-building projects and critical labour gaps; this is a politically “clean” category that can be kept small but consistent.
CIC News Note: IRCC’s current Trades Category features occupations that would overlap with the bot’s proposed “Construction” category.
It is also worth noting that the Canadian government has not mentioned any interest in a category for critical infrastructure or energy transition. IRCC has, however, had consultations in 2025, and proposed the following categories for 2026 that AI did not mention: Leadership, Research and Innovation, National Security and Defence.
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AI Claim: Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) will further tighten eligibility in 2026
According to the bot, the Canadian government will look at further restricting access to work permits in the low-wage stream of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP).
Apart from that, it anticipates higher wage thresholds, and more “do-not-process” zones—while still leaving exemptions for rural/remote employers and essential sectors. It argues this is because Ottawa has already pushed the program in that direction in 2025 by enacting measures such as raising the high-wage threshold and expanding situations where LMIAs won’t be processed.
AI predicted that in Q1-Q2 2026, more CMAs and occupations would be included in the low-wage LMIA processing freeze and a clearer exceptions list (healthcare, food processing, agriculture and construction).
It also predicted more scrutiny to workers after two consecutive LMIAs in the same role or site, and “fee increases and/or longer ineligibility periods for non compliant employers.”
CIC News note: On January 9, Canada updated its list of CMAs that will not process low-wage LMIAs in Q1 2026, and not only were no new regions added to the list but eight were removed as their unemployment rates – a direct contradiction of the bot’s above prediction.
This is a positive movement for those wanting low-wage LMIAs in specific regions.
In addition, as per 2025 data Canada is already on track to undershoot its target for foreign worker arrivals, suggesting that the current regulatory framework for the TFWP will not need further restrictions to reach desired worker levels.
AI Claim: The Physicians with Canadian Work Experience category to start draws in February/ March 2026
AI believes the first draw for this category will be February 2026, “with a decent chance of March 2026 if systems take longer to operationalize.”
When asked for a reason, the bot explained that IRCC publicly said invitations will start in “early 2026,” and they’ve already published program-facing guidance for doctors.
CIC News Note: It is correct that IRCC announced a new category for physicians with Canadian work experience at the end of 2025, and stated that draws for this would begin “early 2026.” There is no evidence to support the bot’s claim that this would begin in February or March.
AI Claim: The next Immigration Levels Plan will keep future permanent resident admissions in line with the current plan, with notional targets increasing in 2029
PR planning is already set to 380,000 PR admissions annually through 2028, with a policy goal of reducing the temporary population share and keeping economic selection dominant.
The bot predicted the following targets for PR admissions in the next Immigration Levels Plan (2027-2029)
- 2027: 380,000
- 2028: 380,000
- 2029: 395,000 (a modest rebound once the temporary-resident “reset” has had time to work)
Other predictions it shared are a 12% requirement for Francophone admissions by 2029, and temporary resident arrivals to stay constrained throughout the 2027-2029 plan “unless the economy sharply turns.”
CIC News Note: The Immigration Levels Plan admission targets showcased above are purely speculation. Final targets are set at the Canadian government’s discretion.
AI Claim: A “smaller, stricter faster” track for immigrant entrepreneurs
The Start-Up Visa closed for new applications at end of 2025 and the Self-Employed Persons program remains paused.
The bot reiterated the government’s promise of a new pilot in 2026, and predicted that it would be announced in May-June 2026 with an intake in September.
The bot also claimed that it would take a small intake (“1,500-3000 principal applicants”) as that was a small enough number to manage program integrity.
It elaborated that further eligibility criteria might be added such as stronger designated organization accountability, and job creation milestones (for example, one or two Canadian hires in 12 months).
Finally, it added that it will have faster PR decisions for founders already operating in Canada, as that ties to the government’s prioritization of in-Canada applicants.
CIC News notes: AI failed to mention that there is an exemption to the SUV’s closure for some applicants until June 30 2026. More details can be found here.
The original SUV program already featured designated organizational accountability, so it remains to be seen whether the new program will also have that as a requirement.
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