Canada’s population contracts, driven by cuts to temporary resident programs

Canada’s population declined in the third quarter of 2025, according to newly-released preliminary estimates by Statistics Canada.

Between July 1 and October 1, 2025, Canada’s population decreased by 76,068 (-0.2%).

This is the first time Statistics Canada’s quarterly population estimates have shown a population decrease in 2025.

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Statistics Canada notes the decline was “mainly due to a drop in non-permanent residents,” which it links to changing government policies concerning immigration.

What the latest estimates show

Most provinces and territories saw population decreases or were little changed in Q3 2025.

Statistics Canada reports the largest population declines occurred in Ontario (-0.4%) and British Columbia (-0.3%), followed by Manitoba and the Northwest Territories (both -0.2%).

Only Alberta and Nunavut (both +0.2%) recorded population increases.

The latest quarterly change contrasts with recent years: in Q3 2023, Canada recorded its highest quarterly population growth rate since 1957 at 1%, and in Q3 2024 the population increased by 0.6% .

Non-permanent resident numbers dropping

Statistics Canada estimates the number of non-permanent residents fell by 176,479 in Q3 2025, calling it the primary reason for the national population decline.

This drop was:

Larger than the declines seen in Q1 2025 (-55,194) and Q2 2025 (-58,719); and
The largest decrease since comparable records began (Q3 1971).

Canada indicated a drop in non-permanent residents, from 3,024,216 (7.3%) on July 1, 2025 down to an estimated 2,847,737 non-permanent residents on October 1 (6.8% of the population).

Statistics Canada attributes the NPR decrease to record-high outflows (339,505)—such as permits expiring—outpacing inflows (163,026), which reflect permits issued.

With one exception, every province and territory had fewer non-permanent residents on October 1 than on July 1.

Statistics Canada reports the overall NPR decline in Q3 2025 was mainly tied to decreases among:

Study permit holders only (-73,682)
Work and study permit holders (-67,616)
Work permit holders only (-35,231)

The reduction in “study permit holders only” was concentrated in Ontario (-47,511) and British Columbia (-14,291), which also have the highest numbers of study permit holders.

At the same time, the number of asylum claimants, protected persons, and related groups increased by 7,324, rising for the 15th consecutive quarter to a record-high 504,767 (though the quarterly increase was smaller than in recent years).

Permanent immigration continued at a similar pace

While temporary immigration dynamics drove the overall population decrease, Statistics Canada says this was partly offset by permanent immigration.

Canada welcomed 102,867 immigrants in Q3 2025, which Statistics Canada describes as similar to quarterly increases seen since Q4 2024 and “in line” with meeting IRCC’s 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan.

Why is the number of NPRs falling?

The decline in the number of NPRs in the third quarter of 2025 can be attributed to a string of policy changes enacted by the federal government over the last two years:

Moratorium on law-wage LMIAs: Low-wage LMIAs submitted after September 26, 2024 are no longer processed in regions with an unemployment rate of 6% or higher.
Without an LMIA, employers cannot hire new workers or renew existing work permits under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program.
Restricted eligibility for spousal open work permits: Spousal open work permits are now limited to spouses of select international students and skilled foreign workers.
Eligibility depends on program type, occupation (TEER level), and minimum work permit validity.
Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) eligibility restrictions: PGWP eligibility now includes language requirements for applications submitted after November 1, 2024, and field of study requirements for graduates of non-exempt programs who submitted their initial study permit applications after November 1, 2024.
Cap on study permit applications: Study permit applications were capped at 550,162 for 2025, with only 437,000 permits to be issued. This represents a 10% reduction from 2024.

The federal government has implemented these changes to advance its objective of reducing temporary residents to 5% of Canada's population by the end of 2027.

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