The Mark Carney effect: Is political discontent at home driving Americans to seek Canadian citizenship?

Over the year, data seems to suggest that an increasing number of Americans are unsatisfied with the way their country is run.

Amongst these Americans, some who have Canadian ancestry have turned to an unexpected solution: applying for a Canadian citizenship, and the options it affords them.

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Are Americans unhappy with their leadership?

Nearly three in four Americans (72 percent) think their country is on the wrong track, according to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll of 1,165 adults conducted in late July.

Close to half of respondents (48 percent) said they have hardly any confidence in those leading the executive branch, and more than half (53 percent) said the same about Congress. Just one in three approve of how the president is handling the job.

Meanwhile, a Gallup survey found that for the second straight year, about one in five Americans say they would like to leave the U.S. and move permanently to another country if they could. This rising interest was shaped by “political attitudes” according to the survey.

“Desire to permanently leave the U.S. was not always such a politicized issue. Between 2008 and 2016, migration aspirations were similar regardless of views toward the country’s leadership. After Trump’s election, 2017 marked the first time this gap exceeded 10 points,” the report states.

The recent trade war between Canada and the US has not helped matters. According to a POLITICO/Public First poll, 56 percent of Americans believe the increased US tariffs on Canada were “wrong.” Nearly a third of Americans sided with Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on their own country.

What is the Mark Carney effect?

While many Americans sour on their leadership, Canada’s prime minister is riding high.

A recent Spark Insights online survey of 6,535 Canadians found approval of the Carney government has hit 70 percent, the highest level in the firm’s tracking. Nearly three in four (74 percent) say Carney is doing a good or acceptable job handling relations with the US.

In response to the collapse of the trade talks with the US, last week news broke of Carney seemingly pursuing a unique alliance and associate membership with the European Union – a move that has been strongly backed by most Canadians.

Some of that goodwill is showing up in citizenship claims. Debra Majer, a religious archivist for the Roman Catholic Diocese of London, Ontario, wrote in Maclean’s that she has been flooded with record requests, mostly from Americans, who are keen on building Canadian citizenship claims.

Some who reached out “gushed over Canada, praising our universal health care and prime minister,” she wrote.

“So many Americans have told me they wish Mark Carney were their leader that I’ve started calling it the Mark Carney Effect.”

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Why are so many Americans applying for Canadian citizenship now?

Americans’ growing frustration with their political climate has coincided with a new law in Canada that opened the door for millions to claim Canadian citizenship.

On December 15, 2025, Bill C-3 took effect. The bill amends the Citizenship Act and removes the first-generation limit, which had previously stopped Canadians born outside the country from passing citizenship to children also born abroad.

The change opened Canadian citizenship to large numbers of Americans born before December 15, 2025, who can prove a unbroken line of descent from a Canadian ancestor. It does not matter if the ancestor is a grandparent, a great-grandparent, or an ancestor further back.

Surge in Americans applying for Canadian citizenship in 2026

Since Bill C-3 came into force on December 15, 2025, applications for proof of Canadian citizenship, the process people who are Canadian by descent use to obtain a citizenship certificate, have surged.

The number of applications from US citizens in January 2026 alone was higher than the combined total from the next nine source countries.

The queue keeps growing. The number of people waiting on a citizenship decision rose from 70,400 in May to 136,000 in September 2026. That means the queue nearly doubled in just four months.

Meanwhile, processing time for these application types has also surged, due to overwhelming demand. As of September 2026, processing time for a proof of Canadian citizenship application is 33 months, and this figure is updated monthly.

With processing times nearing three years, getting the application right the first time matters, and many Americans are turning to qualified immigration lawyers to make sure it is.

What are the benefits of a Canadian citizenship certificate?

A citizenship certificate confirms a status that eligible Americans already hold under the law. Once they receive this certificate, they’re entitled to every benefit Canadian citizenship carries.

The most immediate benefit is the right to freely live, work and study in Canada without a visa or permit. Canada also allows dual citizenship, so Americans don’t have to give up their US citizenship to claim it.

Americans with a Canadian citizenship certificate can also apply for a Canadian passport, which currently ranks higher than the American passport in global mobility.

Younger applicants gain access to International Experience Canada (IEC) youth mobility agreements. Through these, Canadian citizens under the age of 30 (or 35 in some cases) can live and work temporarily in partner countries, including more than a dozen EU members.

Meanwhile, those who choose to settle in Canada can access public healthcare and social services.

Those who do not wish to settle in the country are unlikely to face any additional tax obligations. Canada taxes based on residency, not citizenship. A citizenship certificate alone does not create a Canadian tax obligation for Americans who continue to live in the US.

Citizenship can also extend to the next generation. Children born abroad before December 15, 2025 are covered by Bill C-3. For children born abroad on or after that date, the Canadian parent, if also born abroad, must have spent at least 1,095 days in Canada before the child’s birth.

For many applicants, the certificate works as a retirement plan. For others, it’s a backup passport, and a way to live under leadership they resonate with.

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