IRCC releases expected work and study permit holder outflows for coming years

Immigration Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) expects more than half a million Non-permanent Residents (NPRs) to leave Canada, or transition to permanent residence (PR) status by the end of this year.

The term NPR encompasses those who are in Canada on a temporary status, including work and study permit holders in the country*. Note that while targets for 2025 have now been confirmed by IRCC, subsequent targets may be altered and will only be committed to by November 1st of the preceding year.

Canada’s immigration department has also released the number of new NPRs it expects to welcome in the next three years; as IRCC continues toward its goal of managing NPR levels in the country to 5 % of Canada’s total population.

*NPR may also refer to:

• Asylum claimants;
• Protected persons; and/or
• The dependents of any identified category (work permit holders, study permit holders, asylum claimants, and/or protected persons).

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What are the NPR outflows IRCC expects this year, and in the next three years?

According to Canada’s Annual Report on Immigration for 2024, IRCC expects 588,409 NPRs to leave Canada or transition to PR status by the end of 2024. While the department does plan a reduction in NPR levels in the coming years, they still anticipate a net change of 299,216 more NPRs in Canada by the end of 2024. According to IRCC, by the end of the year, there will be an expected 2.9 million NPRs in Canada, representing 7.1% of the total population.

Over the next three years, IRCC expects the following outflows of NPRs in Canada:

Non-permanent Resident (NPR) Measures	2025	2026	2027
Total NPR outflows	1,262,801	1,104,658	875,179
Net change in NPR numbers	-445,901	-445,622	17,439
Population of NPRs in Canada	2,515,099	2,069,477	2,086,916
NPRs as a % of the Canadian population	6.1%	5.0%	5.0%

How many NPRs does IRCC expect to welcome in the next three years?

The Annual Report on Immigration for 2024 also contained expected NPR inflows for the next three years. By the end of the year, IRCC expects a combined 887,625 new NPRs in the country.

Over the next three years, IRCC aims to welcome the following numbers of NPRs:

Non-permanent Resident (NPR) Measures	2025	2026	2027
Total NPR inflows	816,900	659,036	892,568
NPR inflows subject to targets for students and workers	673,650	516,600	543,600
NPR inflows for contingency reserves	143,250	142,436	348,968
Number of new work permit holders through the International Mobility Program (IMP)	285,750	128,700	155,700
Number of new work permit holders through the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP)	82,000	82,000	82,000
Number of new study permit holders	305,900	305,900	305,900

Work permits issued under the IMP may include the following programs or pathways:

• The Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) Program;
• The International Experience Class (IEC) Program;
• Work permits issued from Foreign Trade Agreements with other countries including:
  • The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA);
  • The Trans-Pacific Partnership; and
  • Canada-European Union Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (CETA).
• The Intra-Company Transfer Program; and
• The Significant Benefit Work Permit Program.

Work permits issued under the TFWP may include the following programs or pathways:

• The High-wage, Low-wage, Agriculture, and/or In-Home Caregiver streams of the TFWP;
• The Seasonal Agriculture Worker Program; and
• The Global Talent Stream.

Note that the above lists are not conclusive inclusions of work permit issuing programs and streams contained under the IMP or the TFWP.

What actions has IRCC taken to achieve its NPR targets?

Canada’s immigration department has already committed to several steps toward reducing the country's overall NPR population.

These include:

• Adding language and field of study requirements for international graduates applying for a PGWP after November 1, 2024;
• Making the international student cap a permanent fixture of Canada’s immigration system;
• Raising wage requirements for the high-wage stream of the TFWP;
• Limiting eligibility of Spousal Open Work Permits for the spouses of international students;
• Creating an “In-Canada Focus” program priority for Canada’s Express Entry system;
• Temporarily pausing the processing of Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs) under the low-wage stream of the TFWP, for work permit applications destined for metropolitan areas in Canada with a total unemployment rate higher than or equal to 6%;
• Ending the COVID-era policy allowing some foreign nationals on a visitor visa in Canada to apply for job-specific work permits; and
• Ending flag poling services for PGWP candidates and adding further constraints to flag poling services overall at Canadian ports of entry.

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